GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. — It's a numbers game.
All but one team in the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference still have mathematical shots at one of the eight spots in the conference tournament — Fort Lewis has been eliminated — with only two weeks remaining.
The number of teams that can still win the regular-season championship has been whittled to six, with Colorado Mesa having the clearest path to the Mavs' 12th title, with the magic number to clinch the title outright sitting at three. Any combination of Maverick wins and Western Colorado and Black Hills State losses that totals three would eliminate the other two from title contention. CSU Pueblo, CU-Colorado Springs and Adams State would be out of the title chase with one loss or one CMU victory.
One win this week will assure the Mavericks (19-4, 14-2 RMAC) a first-round home game in the RMAC Tournament, two wins will guarantee them a tie for the regular-season title.
As far as the Mavericks are concerned, none of that matters.
"We just block out all the outside noise and we just focus on one game at a time," junior guard Mykaela Moore said this week. "That's the best thing that we can do right now at this point in the season."
Senior point guard Kylie Kravig agreed.
"When you don't show up any given night, you can get beat," she said.
Three of CMU's final four regular-season games will come at Brownson Arena, where the Mavericks are 7-1, starting at 5:30 p.m. on Thursday against South Dakota Mines (6-17, 6-10). That night is the annual Blizzard in Brownson, presented by Coca Cola, and fans are encouraged to wear white.
Saturday at 1 p.m., third-place Black Hills State (15-8, 11-5) comes in seeking to avenge its loss to the Mavs on their home court and trying to secure a home playoff game.
Not only have the Mavericks won 12 consecutive games, but they're on a 13-game conference winning streak. The 12-0 run is the 10th-longest active streak in Division II this season, and seven of the wins have come on the road — CMU is 8-1 on opponents' floors.
"The girls have proven to themselves that they can go out and win on the road and be in different environments and still accomplish their goals," CMU coach Taylor Wagner said. "Coming down late, I don't care (home or away), it's just the next game. We've got to be well-prepared and have these girls ready to go and make sure we have a good scheme going into that game so we can get a victory."
STAT PACK
A few statistical updates: Riley Hayes continues to lead Division II with 3.09 made 3-pointers per game. She's second in the RMAC in 3-point field goal percentage (35.9). Kylie Kravig is fifth nationally with 147 assists and a 6.6 assists-per-game average. Olivia Reed Thyne has 15 double-doubles, which is third-most in the nation, and can become the 11th player in RMAC history to score 600 points in a single season.
The junior forward has scored 525 points this season and is averaging 22.8 per game, so she's on pace to hit 600 by the end of the regular season. Postseason stats will count in all season and career marks. Reed Thyne would join three other Mavericks on the 600-point list, Sharaya Selsor (750, 2013-14), Kelsey Sigl (610, 2012-13) and Tonya Stites (604, 1991-92). Annette Wiles of Fort Hays State scored 880 points in the 1990-91 season, leading the Tigers to the NAIA national title as the tournament MVP.
Stites is CMU's all-time scoring leader with 1,920. Reed Thyne has scored 1,436 points through 84 games, which ranks seventh in program history.
THE RANKINGS
The first set of official NCAA regional rankings was released Wednesday afternoon, and it's no surprise the Mavericks are under consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid. The first week of rankings is a list of 10 teams, listed alphabetically.
The Mavericks are one of four RMAC teams listed, along with Black Hills State, CSU Pueblo and CU-Colorado Springs. The next two Wednesdays, teams will be ranked, with official bids extended on March 9, announced on ncaa.com. The tournament champions from the RMAC and Lone Star Conference receive automatic bids, with six at-large teams.
For what it's worth, the Mavericks are ranked No. 4 in the D2CSC South Central Rankings, with a six-member voting panel in each region.
Nationally, the Mavericks remained at No. 24 in the D2CSC rankings and are the top team in the "receiving votes" category in the Women's Basketball Coaches Association poll.
SCOUTING THE HARDROCKERS
An 0-9 start to the season and a 1-4 conference start put South Dakota Mines (6-17, 6-10 RMAC) in a big hole, but the Hardrockers are showing improvement.
They avenged an earlier loss to MSU Denver last week to snap a four-game losing streak, which included a 3-point loss at Regis.
Morning Grace Spotted Bear leads the 'Rockers in scoring (13.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.5 rpg), with Savea Mansfield chipping in 13.4 points a game and Piper Bauer 11.2.
Spotted Bear has reached double figures in all but five games this season, with a season-high 32 against Fort Lewis.
The Hardrockers average 59 points a game and give up 68.5, and are shooting only 36 percent from the field. Turnovers have been an issue, with 16.5 per game. A physical team, South Dakota Mines averages 37.4 rebounds a game.
SCOUTING THE YELLOW JACKETS
With four players averaging double figures and a defense that gives up only 58.5 points a game, it's easy to see why Black Hills State was leading the RMAC through mid-January at 7-1.
Colorado Mesa, riding a hot streak of its own, went into Spearfish and knocked the Yellow Jackets out of first place with a 57-41 victory, the first of Black Hills' three straight losses, including a 10-point loss to Chadron State.
They regrouped in February with three straight wins, including beating CSU Pueblo and CU-Colorado Springs, before a last-second loss last week at Colorado School of Mines, which had to win to stay in playoff contention. Black Hills then went to Regis and won to remain in contention for a home game in the first round of the RMAC Tournament.
Kalla Bertram and Haylee Weathersby average 13.7 and 13.2 points a game, respectively, with Bradie Schlabs at 12.1 and Morgan Hammerbeck at 11.3. The Yellow Jackets rebound by committee, with the starting five all grabbing between 5-7 boards a game.
Defensively, Black Hills holds teams to 38.5 percent shooting, and the Yellow Jackets shoot 42 percent from the field as a team. Hammerbeck is the primary 3-point shooter, making nearly two per game.
DYK?
South Dakota Mines plans to unveil a new "Grubby," the iconic prospector mascot the school has featured for more than 70 years. Social media postings by the school say Grubby will undergo his "biggest transformation yet," and a "sharper, bolder Grubby" will be introduced during the school's "Raising for Rockers" fundraiser this week, Feb. 20-21.
